Oil at $100 per barrel, the 10-year Treasury yield breaking above 4.7%, and the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks evaporating $800 billion in a single day—every signal from last week's market points in the same direction: uncertainty is intensifying sharply. Amid the turmoil, the cryptocurrency market has shown intriguing resilience.
The escalation of the US-Iran conflict was the core variable in last week's market. Yemen's Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, directly pushing Brent crude oil above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. This is not just an energy market event; rising oil prices are reshaping inflation expectations, thereby influencing the Fed's interest rate path. The market pricing for a July FOMC rate hike is around 40%, while the likelihood of a September hike is rising. Kevin Warsh, a leading candidate for Fed chair, has clearly stated that he would support a rate hike at any sign of inflation anomalies. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims were only 187,000, the lowest since the pandemic, indicating an overheated labor market that gives the Fed room to raise rates. The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 4.7%, a new high since January 2025. For all risk assets, a high-interest-rate environment means a contraction in risk appetite and tighter liquidity—a logic repeatedly validated by the market over the past two years.
However, it is worth noting that the seasonal peak in refinery capacity utilization is concentrated in July and August, with maintenance season starting after the end of August. If the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, refined product supply will tighten further. Gasoline destocking is extremely rapid, with inventories already at very low levels, meaning refined products have almost no elasticity to absorb additional supply risks. At that point, the actual impact on the economy will be more severe.
Beyond macro pressures, several noteworthy signals have emerged at the industry level. Goldman Sachs' CEO publicly expressed support for the Clarity Act, particularly valuing its provisions regarding traditional financial institutions' participation in digital assets and blockchain. This is an important regulatory signal. If the Clarity Act advances to a vote and makes progress before the Senate recess on August 7, it could open an institutional channel for capital to enter the crypto market. If it fails to pass, it may prolong the period of regulatory ambiguity in the industry, while attention should also be paid to crypto-related sanctions and compliance developments in other regions such as the EU.
S&P Dow Jones Indices partnered with Pantera to launch a crypto index, but the index excludes Bitcoin, XRP, and meme coins. The top five holdings are ETH, BNB, SOL, TRX, and HYPE. This reflects traditional financial institutions' preference when constructing index products: they favor assets with ecosystem support rather than pure stores of value or speculative instruments. Meanwhile, BitMEX confirmed it will cease operations by September 23, marking the end of an era. In the first half of 2026, crypto derivatives trading volume fell 15.7% year-over-year, and average daily open interest dropped 10%, indicating the market is undergoing a structural contraction.
In terms of capital flows, Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $450 million over two days, suggesting short-term capital tends to exit amid macro uncertainty. However, ETH ETFs showed stronger resilience, with only $7 million in net outflows on Friday, as the market seems to be reassessing Ethereum's value proposition. In terms of market sentiment, the Fear and Greed Index has fallen back to the 20-40 range, indicating a state of "fear." Coinbase's premium (BTC/USD premium) has widened again to -0.12%, reflecting a cooling in institutional trading activity.
From a technical perspective, the crypto market is in a volatile upward pattern overall, having not yet broken below the rebound support line. Bitcoin's price is trading above the daily EMA30 and is testing the EMA60 (approximately $65,500) and EMA120 (approximately $68,800). These two levels are the most critical resistance in the short term, and in the medium to long term, the market remains in a rebound rather than a reversal phase. The 14-day RSI is in the neutral range of 45 to 57, neither overbought nor oversold, indicating that the market has not yet chosen a direction. Key support levels are at $64,300 and $62,000; if the latter is breached, it could trigger a larger-scale stop-loss sell-off.
In the next 30 days, there are several industry conferences such as Bitcoin Asia, Malaysia Blockchain Week, and Coinfest Asia, but there is a lack of definitive major protocol-level upgrades. The market needs new catalysts to break the current wait-and-see pattern.
This week is the US earnings season, and the FOMC will announce its interest rate decision on July 29. The market is likely to price in no change, but changes in wording could trigger volatility. In August, there will be non-farm payroll and CPI data. These macro variables will directly affect market expectations of the Fed's rate path. If oil prices and geopolitical risks persist, they may reinforce concerns of "higher for longer."
Oil prices, interest rates, and regulation—the interaction of these three variables will determine the market direction in the coming months. In a scenario of deteriorating macro conditions, the crypto market has shown relative resilience, but in the short term, it relies more on macro and capital drivers than fundamental catalysts.
