Author: Wall Street Sights
The top U.S. military general is privately seeking an "exit" from the war with Iran.
According to Xinhua News Agency, CNN reported on the 7th, citing multiple informed sources, that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, recently expressed this stance clearly in meetings with White House officials including Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and CIA Director Ratcliffe. On the 8th, Vance characterized the U.S.-Iran conflict as a "mid-game" in an interview with Fox News, saying the war is "clearly no longer in its opening phase."
On the same day, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani presented six conditions to the U.S. side—covering troop withdrawal, lifting all sanctions, and compensation for war losses—as prerequisites for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Around this strategic waterway, which once carried one-fifth of the world's oil transportation, the game has entered deep waters: the U.S. side is running low on ammunition stockpiles, and airstrikes have limited effect; the Iranian side holds control of the strait, advancing temporary channel negotiations with Oman on one hand, while setting up layers of obstacles to full reopening on the other.
Vance: "Not in the opening, already in the mid-game"
According to Xinhua News Agency, Vance said on the 8th that the U.S.-Iran conflict is "not over, but it is clearly no longer in the opening phase, but has entered the mid-game phase," and the U.S. is comprehensively using diplomatic, economic, and military means.
He pointed out that the U.S. side's current focus is on "maximizing the amount of oil and gas shipped through the Strait of Hormuz," and is observing whether Iran is willing to make the "necessary long-term changes" to establish better bilateral relations—"if Iran is unwilling, the U.S. will continue to apply pressure."
Vance also mentioned that the U.S. is trying to establish a navigation safety mechanism, including mine clearance efforts, while "needing Iran to make a commitment not to fire on commercial ships." Although Iran has consistently denied direct negotiations between the two sides, Trump insists that talks have restarted. Secretary of State Rubio said on the 4th that the U.S. is participating in dialogue between Oman and Iran.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff advocates "finding an exit"
CNN's report reveals deeper anxiety within the U.S. military. Caine's core judgment is that airstrikes alone are unlikely to achieve all the operational goals Trump has announced, but further escalation of the conflict would have obvious negative effects with existing military options. "Caine is looking for an exit," one source said.
The report said that Caine is not the only one who believes the Iran war is at a "crossroads." He has communicated with several presidential advisers who share the same view, in order to unify positions before attending meetings convened by Trump. Many U.S. insiders and analysts believe that achieving a decisive victory would require large-scale ground troop intervention—which could cause heavy U.S. casualties and contradict Trump's campaign promises. Caine admitted in congressional hearings that "air power has its limitations." Media analysis suggests that Trump's repeated threats to expand strikes on Iranian energy facilities are not only unlikely to force Iran to yield, but would almost certainly provoke Iranian retaliatory strikes on energy facilities of U.S. allies in the region.
Ammunition shortages have shifted from private concerns to public issues. Multiple sources point out that since the war began, the U.S. military has consumed nearly four-fifths of its THAAD interceptor missile inventory, about half of its Patriot interceptor missiles, and nearly half of its Tomahawk cruise missiles. Trump initially denied ammunition shortages on the 6th, but later admitted that supplies of "certain types of ammunition" are "relatively tight." Caine has repeatedly expressed concerns to Trump about inventories falling to "dangerously low levels," and the ammunition crunch is making Trump increasingly frustrated on the Iran issue.
U.S. Central Command has widely solicited "creative, unconventional" suggestions internally to break the deadlock, which precisely reflects that the U.S. has few options left to force Iran into an agreement. Additionally, Niu Danqin, citing U.S. media reports, said that the aircraft carrier USS Lincoln has been deployed in the Middle East for over eight consecutive months, with more than 5,000 crew members facing supply shortages and low morale, and multiple military family members are calling for the ship to dock for resupply as soon as possible.
Iran's Six Conditions: Hardliners Set High Thresholds
On August 8, according to Iran's official news agency IRNA, Shamkhani listed six conditions to the U.S. side:
- Never threaten Iran;
- End all aggression against Iran and its allies;
- Lift the naval blockade and withdraw military forces from around Iran;
- Compensate Iran for all war losses;
- Lift all sanctions against Iran;
- Unconditionally unfreeze all frozen Iranian assets.
Shamkhani emphasized: "This is the demand of the Iranian people, who have been shouting continuously in squares and streets for 160 days. The Supreme National Security Council will never back down, whether in war or in negotiations."
According to The Wall Street Journal, the council is dominated by hardliners and reports directly to Supreme Leader Khamenei. The report noted that the above conditions are not the official position formally proposed by Iranian negotiators, and are clearly an unacceptable starting point for the U.S., but they indicate that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is setting high thresholds for any agreement. Notably, in actual contacts with mediators, Iranian diplomats have put forward more pragmatic demands—mainly reported to focus on lifting the naval blockade, restoring sanctions exemptions for oil exports, and unfreezing billions of dollars in Iranian funds.
A spokesman for the Revolutionary Guards said on official media on the 8th: "The Strait of Hormuz is not just an economic waterway for us, but a key component of geopolitical and strategic power." According to Tasnim News Agency, the Revolutionary Guards said that reopening the strait is unrelated to Iran-Oman negotiations, "and depends on whether the U.S. fully accepts Iran's conditions and stops interfering in regional negotiations."
Temporary shipping lanes 'close to agreement', full reopening still far off
With full reopening still nowhere in sight, technical negotiations between Iran and Oman over temporary shipping arrangements have made progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said on the 8th: "Given the technical complexity, we are defining a temporary route, and I think we are very close to reaching an agreement."
But Araghchi immediately drew a clear line: "This does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. The reopening of the strait also depends on other conditions, including compensation from the United States for violating the memorandum of understanding." — In June this year, the ceasefire memorandum of understanding signed by Trump and Iran sought to open the strait and pave the way for deeper negotiations, but it subsequently collapsed due to continued Iranian attacks on passing ships.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the Iran-Oman draft agreement proposes establishing new shipping lanes in the strait: the inbound lane near the Iranian side, the outbound lane near the Omani side, with Iran exercising regulatory authority over inbound vessels. Iran also insists on prohibiting US Navy warships from passing through the strait in any agreement, aiming to weaken the US military presence that has persisted in the Persian Gulf for decades. US officials have told mediators that they will not accept Iran imposing restrictions on strait traffic or collecting tolls.
The situation is still deteriorating. UAE's national oil company ADNOC said that in the past week, three ships have been attacked by missiles or drones, bringing the total number of ships hit since the war began to 15. The UAE attributed the latest attack on the 8th to the Revolutionary Guard.
Over the weekend, Trump called off a new round of military strikes aimed at breaking the deadlock, citing "progress in negotiations." Iranian President Pezeshkian also said, "Now might be the right time to advance negotiations." But according to mediators, talks have recently stalled due to Iran's demands for economic relief and the US insistence on freedom of navigation. Zolgadr's tough stance and continued attacks on ships have deepened mediators' concerns that hardliners are delaying approval of the agreement.
