Author: Long Yue
There is a clear divergence between the statements of Iran and the United States regarding the current state of negotiations, and the prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain.
According to CCTV News reported on August 10, US President Trump said in an interview on the 9th that he is currently "handling the Iran issue in a low-key manner." Meanwhile, according to Xinhua News Agency reported the same day, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi explicitly denied any direct negotiations between the two sides, saying "there are currently no negotiations between Iran and the US," and "information exchange is conducted through intermediaries."
The two countries' statements on the status of negotiations are completely opposite. Neither side is willing to publicly admit that negotiations have broken down, but neither can claim that negotiations are progressing.
The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and gas transportation. Since the US and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28 this year, this strategic waterway has actually been largely closed, causing oil prices to fluctuate sharply. Last week, Brent crude oil finally closed above $83 per barrel, with the market continuing to bet on progress in negotiations.
Trump: Economic pressure is leverage, not eager for military escalation
In an interview, Trump said, "We are just having a 'half-negotiation' with them. We are just watching the situation in Iran; they are facing severe inflation and are short of funds." He said Iran's current economic situation is "very bad," "they don't even have money to pay for military expenses." He said the US naval blockade has further exacerbated Iran's economic crisis.
Trump described the current US-Iran situation as "like a chess game" and said "things will be resolved." He hinted that compared to re-launching large-scale military operations, he prefers to increase economic pressure.
This statement is consistent with Trump's repeated threats of large-scale airstrikes on Iran in previous weeks, followed by calls to stop. According to Bloomberg, last weekend Trump again called off a new round of military strike plans, citing "progress in negotiations."
Iran: US violates memorandum, resumption of talks is out of the question
According to Xinhua News Agency, Araghchi clearly stated the direct reason for Iran's refusal to resume talks: "Until the US stops violating the memorandum of understanding and remedies the relevant breaches, Iran believes that the conditions for restarting negotiations do not exist."
In June this year, Trump signed a ceasefire memorandum of understanding with Iran, aimed at opening the strait and paving the way for in-depth negotiations. However, the US side said the agreement subsequently collapsed due to Iran's continued attacks on passing ships. Iran, on the other hand, blames the US for its violations.
Araghchi also said that mediators are still trying to find a way to restart negotiations, "some intermediary countries are working hard to rebuild the foundation for talks."
Iran sets tough conditions, hardliners set high thresholds
On August 8, according to Iran's official news agency IRNA, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Zolgadr set six conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz on the 8th:
Never threaten Iran;
End all aggression against Iran and its allies;
Lift the naval blockade and withdraw military forces from around Iran;
Compensate Iran for all war losses;
Lift all sanctions against Iran;
Unconditionally unfreeze all Iranian frozen assets.
Zolgadr emphasized: "This is the demand of the Iranian people, who have been shouting continuously in squares and streets for 160 days. The Supreme National Security Council will never back down, whether in war or in negotiations."
According to the Wall Street Journal, the council is dominated by hardliners and reports directly to Supreme Leader Khamenei. The report noted that these conditions are not the official position put forward by Iranian negotiators and are obviously an unacceptable starting point for the US side, but they indicate that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is setting a high bar for any agreement. Notably, in actual contacts with mediators, Iranian diplomats have put forward more pragmatic demands—reportedly focusing mainly on lifting the naval blockade, restoring sanctions exemptions for oil exports, and unfreezing billions of dollars in Iranian funds.
Temporary shipping lane "close to agreement", but unrelated to the US
According to Xinhua News Agency, Araqchi said that negotiations between Iran and Oman on determining a new shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz are "progressing well and have now entered the final stage," and "I think we are very close to reaching an agreement."
But he immediately drew a clear line: "Adjusting the maritime shipping lane is a technical and legal issue, and does not mean reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Even if an agreement is reached, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still depends on whether other conditions are met, including compensation from the United States for violating the memorandum of understanding."
The draft Iran-Oman agreement proposes to establish a new shipping lane in the strait: the inbound lane near the Iranian side, the outbound lane near the Omani side, with Iran exercising regulatory authority over inbound vessels. Iran also insists that any agreement prohibit US Navy warships from passing through the strait. US officials have told mediators that they will not accept Iran imposing restrictions on strait traffic or collecting tolls.
The Omani side said that negotiations with Iran are proceeding in a "positive and constructive atmosphere" and called on all parties to suspend operations in the strait to leave room for diplomatic efforts.
The situation is still deteriorating, and pressure within the US military is emerging
According to Bloomberg, the Houthis claimed on the 9th to have attacked Saudi Aramco's refinery in Jizan. Saudi authorities had previously reported a fire at the facility, but it was quickly extinguished with no casualties. This is at least the second attack on the refinery in the past month.
According to Xinhua News Agency, US Vice President Vance on the 8th characterized the US-Iran conflict as "mid-game", saying the war is "clearly no longer in the opening phase", and the US is comprehensively using diplomatic, economic, and military means. He said the key question is whether Iran is willing to make the necessary "long-term changes"—"If Iran is unwilling, the US will continue to apply pressure."
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine recently expressed in meetings with Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and other White House senior officials his stance on "finding an exit" for the Iran war, believing that air strikes alone are unlikely to achieve all operational objectives. CNN also reported that since the war began, the US military has consumed nearly four-fifths of its THAAD interceptor inventory, about half of its Patriot interceptors, and nearly half of its Tomahawk cruise missiles.
According to Bloomberg, any Hormuz agreement requires the approval of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei. Khamenei has not appeared publicly since the war broke out, but on the 9th he said on social media that he had met with President Pezeshkian and they discussed the war and economic issues.
