Written by: Haotian
After recent in-depth exchanges with several seasoned on-chain friends, we have reached a high consensus on the survival rules of the current cycle. The market has completely shifted from "listening to stories and speculating on expectations" to "focusing on cash flow and verifying implementation." Below are some trading insights for your reference (for informational purposes only):
1) Prioritize assets with real value capture capabilities.
In a bull market, the market is willing to pay for stories and expectations, but in a bear market, only real cash flow and buyback/burn records matter. The true "golden ticket" in this cycle is when a protocol can continuously generate fees and directly return those fees to token holders through buybacks, burns, or dividends. For example, the recently well-performing launchpad concept coins like $UNI, $PUMP, $PONS, and the buyback king of this cycle, $HYPE;
2) Only select projects where PMF has been achieved and a complete closed loop has been formed.
Because in the next cycle, barring surprises, only two narratives will be relevant: "asset tokenization" and "Agentic Economy" (including Perps, prediction markets, stablecoins, and payments). The market will shift from preferring technology narrative expansion to practical implementation and validation. For example, projects without real users, real transaction closed loops, and real revenue will be quickly filtered out. Concept coins along this line include $ONDO, $VVV, $VIRTUAL, etc., with a focus on metrics like actual AUM, trading volume, and fee generation capability;
3) Choose assets with strong "consensus."
It must be admitted that after several cycles in the crypto industry, the only thing that has stood the test of time is "consensus." Note that this consensus is one that naturally develops in the market and has cross-cycle capability. Do not mistake the so-called "consensus" that arises from someone replying to a tweet or from industrialized hype. What truly has potential are those old assets that newcomers cannot fully understand but that consistently maintain good liquidity and remain healthy. For example, old Cult MEME tokens like $DOGE, $PEPE, $PEOPLE, or leading assets in various sub-sectors like $ZEC, $TAO. They have weathered multiple bull and bear cycles, have strong organic community vitality, and are easily targeted by major funds for repeated trading and manipulation;
4) Try to avoid pure VC coins.
If I say altcoins are dead, you might argue that financial markets are cyclical, but if I say VC coins are dead, basically no one would disagree. Because VC coins with high FDV, low float, and continuous large unlocks are destined to rely only on airdrop expectations before and after TGE to generate hype. If the project lacks value capture capability, it will inevitably face a lack of momentum for subsequent development and the awkward situation of "unlock and dump." This is the fundamental reason why this cycle has "not a crazy bull, but a deep bear." With a large number of hungry VCs waiting to unlock and dump, how can retail investors dare to touch such tokens?
Note: The above is only a summary of personal exchanges with friends, and the tokens mentioned are just examples and do not constitute investment advice.
